Richmond, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

464
FXUS61 KAKQ 150729
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
329 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front drops south through the area today, bringing in
slightly cooler and drier weather by Saturday. Warmer and drier
weather is expected Sunday into Monday with below normal
temperatures returning by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Patchy fog this morning should dissipate after sunrise.

- Another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible
  today, but coverage should be lower.

Temperatures have fallen into the lower 70s, but dew points aren`t
far off of that which has allowed for the development of areas of
patchy fog, especially in areas that saw rainfall last night.  The
front is still draped across the area, but convection diminished
late last night. Aside from the developing fog, GOES Nighttime
Microphysics is depicting mostly clear skies across the local area.
The fog and low stratus will start to dissipate after sunrise,
though muggy conditions will linger.

The front will continue to push through the remainder of the
forecast area this afternoon. A noticeable airmass change behind the
front is not expected today and temperatures are forecast to reach
the mid to upper 80s, with dew points remaining in the mid 70s. To
our southeast, a shortwave will eject off of the Carolina coast and
and a weak surface low is forecast to develop. While we will be well
north of this surface low, some of our area (more focused on the
southern half of the forecast area) could see some showers and
thunderstorms develop along its northern periphery in the vicinity
of the front. There will not be much upper level forcing over our
area, so these showers and thunderstorms will likely develop along
convergence/outflow boundaries and gradually move S/SW over the
course of the afternoon and evening. Convective coverage will likely
be less than yesterday (have capped PoPs at high end chance), but
isolated instances of flooding cannot be ruled out due to the
already saturated grounds from yesterday`s rain. Despite the
northeasterly flow which is generally better for keeping thunder
probs low, the water temperatures and unchanged airmass behind the
front will still be able to provide the necessary ingredients for at
least isolated thunder within any developing convection.

Any convection will wane heading into tonight. Another night of
fog/low stratus is possible within this moist airmass, especially in
areas that receive rainfall today. Temperatures will drop into the
lower 70s overnight, but dew points will also remain in the lower
70s, making for a muggy night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Storm chances decrease on Saturday and especially Sunday as
  the low-level flow becomes onshore.

High pressure will build southward across the region through the
weekend. Drier conditions are expected Saturday, however, cannot
rule out an isolated shower or storm across mainly the Piedmont. The
surface low off the Carolina coast will linger through the day on
Saturday and could cause gustier winds along the coast. Aloft, upper
ridging will build to the west of our area, which will further
decrease shower coverage by Sunday.

Temperatures will remain generally seasonable with highs in the mid-
upper 80s on Saturday and peaking near 90 degrees on Sunday. Areas
along the coast on Sunday will likely only reach the mid-upper 80s
due to the onshore flow expected. By Saturday night, the high will
start to push in slightly lower temperatures and dew points. Lows
Saturday will be a bit more refreshing and in the mid-upper 60s
inland and upper 60s-lower 70s nearer to the coast. Meanwhile, the
lower dew points will keep heat indices out of the Heat Advisory
range on Sunday. Heat indices below 100F are expected Saturday, but
could touch 100F on Sunday due to the higher temperatures expected.
By Sunday night, the airmass will have already started to slowly
moderate and lows will be in the lower 70s across the local
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Seasonably warm weather continues into early next week.

- Slightly cooler with isolated-scattered showers and storms
  possible by midweek.

- Tropical Cyclone Erin is likely to stay well offshore of the
  local area as it makes its closest approach late next week.
  The main impacts are expected to be at area beaches as
  dangerous swimming conditions develop.

Upper ridging will remain stretched across the region through early
next week. This will help reduce rain chances and allow temperatures
to climb into the upper 80s Monday. A front will dip down closer to
the area Monday evening into Tuesday which could allow for increased
cloud cover and keep temperatures mid 80s. Despite the closer
proximity of the front on Tuesday and Wednesday, rain chances are
forecast to remain in the slight/low end chance category for our
area. While there are still uncertainties regarding the track of
what will soon be Hurricane Erin, ensemble/model consensus continue
to show the system recurving well offshore away from our area. This
is thanks to the amplification of a trough to our north by mid-week
which will shunt the aforementioned upper ridge back to the west. As
this trough drops southward, it will create a weakness in the flow
aloft and steer Erin towards the north then northeast. The question
that remains is how far to the west will this storm make it before
making its turn. At this time, the main impacts from the system are
the potential high surf and Rip currents at the beaches, but we will
continue to monitor any trends in the track and update the forecast
as necessary.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 136 AM EDT Friday...

All convection has subsided across the terminals and VFR conditions
are currently prevailing this morning. Cloud cover has yet to
develop this morning, but expecting a combination of low-level CIGS
and patchy fog to develop over the next few hours. Pending how much
fog develops, short-term amendments may be necessary to drop VIS.
Conditions will start to improve after sunrise as cloud cover
scatters out and any fog lifts. Scattered thunderstorms will once
again be possible this afternoon, though timing and location are
still uncertain at this point. Have refrained from mentioning
convection during this TAF cycle and will wait until there is more
confidence in development. Surface winds will be light and variable
overnight, becoming light from the northeast during the day
tomorrow.

Outlook: Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and
storms continue through Saturday. MVFR CIGs will continue to be
possible through the weekend with potentially IFR CIGs and/or
VSBY (due to fog) possible near sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions today through the weekend
  and into Monday, aside from a period of increased NE flow
  late tonight and Saturday south of Cape Charles.

- Large swell and a high risk of rip currents are expected as
  early as Tuesday and continuing Wednesday and Thursday as
  Erin tracks through the western Atlantic.

Broad weak low pressure is centered over eastern NC early this
morning. Benign marine conditions are occurring with a light
northerly wind, and seas ~2ft with waves in the Ches. Bay ~1ft and 1-
2ft at the mouth of the Bay. Low pressure slides offshore today as
high pressure builds over New England. This will allow the wind to
become E ~10kt. Seas remain ~2ft with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay.
Low pressure becomes more organized tonight into Saturday as high
pressure remains in vicinity of the New England coast and Atlantic
Canada. This will allow for a NE wind to increase to ~15kt from the
mouth of the Bay S through the southern coastal waters, with a 10-
15kt NE wind elsewhere. Seas build to ~3ft N to 3-4ft S, with waves
~2ft in the middle Ches. Bay and 2-3ft in the lower Bay. The
forecast for this time period remains sub-SCA. However, marginal SCA
conditions are possible late tonight into Saturday off the Currituck
Outer Banks where seas have a tendency to over-perform in a NE wind.
High pressure then builds S along the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday into
Monday with quiet marine conditions expected.

TS Erin is forecast to become a hurricane later today, and then a
major hurricane later Saturday, before reaching a position midway
between the Bahamas and Bermuda later Tuesday. Meanwhile, a backdoor
cold front is forecast to drop across the Mid-Atlantic coast late
Monday night/early Tuesday as high pressure builds across New
England and Atlantic Canada. The combination of high pressure to the
NE and Erin well SE of the region will result in increasing E to NE
flow by the middle of next week. The general model consensus depicts
Erin turning N off the Carolina coast and then NE off the Mid-
Atlantic coast by Wednesday-Thursday of next week. 4-6ft swell
arrives ahead of Erin by Tuesday and potentially 6-8ft (3-5ft in the
mouth of the Ches. Bay) by Wednesday-Thursday as the TC makes its
`closest` approach to the coast. SCA conditions are expected by the
middle of next week, primarily for seas/waves in the coastal waters
and mouth of the Ches. Bay.

A low risk of rip currents is forecast for today. The rip risk for
Saturday is moderate with increasing onshore flow, with a high risk
possible for the Currituck beaches. A high rip current risk is
expected next week beginning as early as Tuesday as large long
period swell arrives ahead of Erin.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW/NB
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...SW/NB
LONG TERM...SW/NB
AVIATION...AC/NB
MARINE...AJZ